The AI ‘Inevitables’ for The Next 18 Months

Christian J. Ward
February 11, 2024
10 mins
AI will shift dramatically in the next 18 months.

CONTENTS

• AI Efficiency at Work

• Prompt Inversion

• AI Model Convergence

• Conversational UIs Exploding

• Personal AI Services

INTRODUCTION

Certain developments are poised to reshape our interaction with technology in the coming months. This analysis explores five key areas where AI will likely significantly impact: Efficiency at work, prompt inversion, AI model convergence, the explosion of conversational UIs, and personal AI. The discussion highlights advancements in AI and improvements in our ability to access and integrate it into our daily lives. These changes can enhance workplace productivity, transform user-AI interactions, standardize language understanding across AI models, revolutionize brand-customer engagement through conversational interfaces, and elevate personalized AI services. Let’s dive into what I think might be inevitable.

AI EFFICIENCY AT WORK

The future of artificial intelligence (AI) is inevitable, and its impact in the workplace is expected to be transformative. Over the next 12 to 18 months, AI is predicted to revolutionize efficiency at work, one of the five key categories of AI advancement.

This shift is about the technology itself and its seamless integration into our daily lives.

The first step towards this AI-fueled efficiency is integrating conversational support into all software-as-a-service (SaaS) products. These AI-based assistants, or "co-pilots," will initially be specific to their respective software. For instance, if a user works on PowerPoint or Google Slides, the AI will understand how to work within that platform. However, this is merely the beginning, with the ultimate goal being seamless interactivity across all apps and platforms.

This concept aligns with the discussions around the Large Action Model (LAM), where interfaces are viewed as their own language. Every software package has a unique language, with specific commands and actions that users have learned to interact with. AI can learn this interface-based language, much like it learns any other language opening the door to the AI being able to directly control any interface.

One of the key benefits of this AI efficiency is the potential for increased productivity. A study by Boston Consulting Group revealed that teams with access to AI performed 12.2% more tasks, 25.1% faster, and produced results of 40% higher quality compared to the control group (Boston Consulting Group, 2024).

This highlights the potential of AI to scale efficiency rapidly.

The importance of this shift is further emphasized by a study shared by Ethan Mollick, which showed that AI experts have increased their estimate of when AI could outperform humans at every task from 2060 to 2047 within just one year. This indicates the rapid pace of AI development and underlines the importance of preparing for AI integration in the workplace. For workers in fields such as marketing or digital, learning to leverage AI could be a significant advantage.

PROMPT INVERSION

Prompt inversion is a concept on the verge of becoming a reality in artificial intelligence (AI). The term denotes a shift from the current AI paradigm, where humans prompt AI, to a scenario where AI prompts humans. This inversion is anticipated to occur within the next five months, marking a significant change to how humans interact with (conversational) AI.

Currently, most AI systems can be challenging for people to comprehend because they require the user to initiate the interaction. This can be likened to staring at a blank box, which many people find daunting as it requires them to choose their own adventure. However, this is set to change as AI systems become more adept at understanding human behavior and needs. They will be able to anticipate what a user might want to do next and offer prompts to guide the interaction. This shift is expected to make AI more user-friendly and efficient.

For example, when a user opens a software platform, the AI might ask if they want to continue with a task they started the previous day. It might also offer assistance with a due report or suggest other tasks based on the user's calendar or previous activities.

This proactive approach by AI can significantly enhance user experience and productivity.

Prompt inversion also has implications for game theory. Traditionally, interactions with AI have been viewed as discrete games, where each human or AI move is visible to the other, and the objective is to win the game. However, prompt inversion shifts the goal from winning to continuous improvement and engagement. The AI's role becomes less about providing definitive answers and more about suggesting new ways the user can interact with it.

This shift necessitates a rethinking of data strategy. Instead of focusing on how humans can prompt AI, the focus should be on how AI can prompt humans to move through their customer journey more efficiently. This requires understanding the users' needs and preferences and using this information to offer them relevant and timely prompts. This proactive approach by AI, guided by a well-thought-out data strategy, can significantly enhance user engagement and satisfaction.

In conclusion, prompt inversion represents a significant shift in AI design and interaction. It has the potential to make AI more user-friendly and efficient, leading to increased user engagement and satisfaction.

As AI continues to evolve, prompt inversion is a trend to watch closely.

AI MODEL CONVERGENCE

The AI landscape is on the brink of a significant transformation, a phenomenon called AI model convergence. This concept signifies that the capacity of machines to comprehend language will reach a point where one model cannot understand significantly better than another. This includes the ability to grasp idioms and idiosyncrasies of human language. For instance, if a user were to say, 'Let's get on the same page,' the AI would comprehend that the user is not suggesting physically standing on a sheet of paper together.

The convergence of AI models is anticipated to occur by the third or fourth quarter of the year, with the release of LLAMA 3, new versions of Claude, and potentially GPT-5. These models are expected to understand and start to get things right truly, a stark contrast from today, where nuances and prompting can often lead to less helpful output. The importance of this convergence lies in the shift it will cause from language understanding to multi-modalities. These include the AI seeing what you see through glasses or a pin, listening to what you are listening to, or joining a meeting as a participating third party. This approach is different, and many people have yet to try ChatGPT's mobile app, which allows for entire conversations with the AI that are engaging and informative.

As language capabilities converge, the next battleground will be around modalities. The most interesting one is building interface modality. By learning how interfaces have been made over the years, the machine can act like it interacts with the screen or clicks with a mouse. OpenAI is now focusing on taking the large language model and moving it into an action model. This model can take actions on your behalf across multiple software devices, so it does not matter whether you use an iPhone, an Android, or multiple SaaS business applications. It can figure out how to accomplish tasks you ask it to do just with language.

The concept of AI model convergence aligns with the theory of technological singularity, a hypothetical point in the future when technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible.

Thankfully, that is still a long way off.

CONVERSATIONAL UI’S EXPLODING

The inevitable explosion of conversational user interfaces (UIs) is one of the most significant developments in the AI landscape, probably in 2025. As AI models converge and language understanding capabilities become more similar across platforms, the addition of conversational interfaces to software platforms will increase exponentially. This shift in user interaction with software platforms, from data input to conversational engagement, is set to revolutionize the user experience.

Conversational UIs will prompt users to extract more from the software, moving beyond human-led interactions to machine-prompted actions. As the AI prompts the human, it can extract more information, provide more tailored responses, and even take action based on the human's requests. This shift from a passive to an interactive, conversational UI will dramatically enhance the user experience, making software platforms more accessible and efficient.

This shift, however, has its challenges. For example, the transition to conversational UIs in a work-from-home environment may initially seem odd. Speaking openly to software, as opposed to typing, may require adjustment. However, the benefits of this shift, such as increased efficiency and user-friendly interfaces, will likely outweigh any initial discomfort.

The rise of conversational UIs also poses a significant threat to centralized search systems like Google. With the ability to directly converse with a brand or software platform, users can get specific answers to their questions without navigating search engine results. This direct engagement with brands could disrupt how users seek information, shifting from search engine queries to direct conversations with brands or software platforms.

The explosion of conversational UIs signifies a significant shift in how users interact with software platforms. As AI evolves and improves, integrating conversational interfaces into software platforms will become increasingly prevalent. This shift towards a more interactive, conversational approach will transform the user experience, making software platforms more accessible, efficient, and user-friendly.

PERSONAL AI SERVICES

The rise of personal AI services is an expansion expected to occur beyond 2024 and will likely extend late into 2025. Major technology companies such as Google, Amazon, and Apple are projected to excel in this arena, given the vast amount of data they hold for each user.

This development involves creating a centralized system where personal information is protected and shared only through a personal agent, like an R2D2 character from Star Wars.

The idea is that when a user asks their personal AI agent, or 'R2D2', to find information about a brand, a restaurant, or a software package, the AI retrieves the information while maintaining the user's privacy. This concept aligns with the vision behind existing AI assistants such as Alexa, Siri, and Google Assistant. However, with the anticipated advancements in language capabilities, these AI agents will become even more effective and integrated across devices.

Each company will compete to maintain a direct relationship with the consumer. The overlap here is fascinating due to the potential benefits of having one personal AI that manages all privacy concerns. This issue of privacy is particularly pertinent. A recent discussion with an attorney specializing in data privacy raises the possibility of regulators enacting legislation that mandates a simple command to an AI to protect privacy and cease all tracking or sharing of information. This could fundamentally alter traditional tracking and behavioral targeting methodologies, allowing entities to distinguish themselves as privacy advocates by empowering their AI systems to protect user information fully.

This scenario opens up exciting possibilities for how these AIs will evolve and the potential for personal AI services to become an integral part of our daily lives. As AI continues to evolve, integrating AI into our daily lives seems inevitable (Kurzweil, 2005). This shift towards personal AI services underscores the importance of understanding and adapting to these technological advancements, particularly for those engaged in technology, data, and AI.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the world of AI is evolving rapidly, with several critical developments predicted to occur in the next 12 to 18 months. The efficiency of AI at work, prompt inversion, AI model convergence, the explosion of conversational UIs, and the rise of personal AI are all aspects of AI that are set to become more integrated into our daily lives.

The potential for AI to increase workplace efficiency is particularly promising, as is the prospect of AI prompting humans to complete tasks rather than vice versa. Furthermore, as AI models converge in their language understanding, the focus will shift to multi-modalities, opening up new possibilities for AI interaction. The rise of conversational UIs could revolutionize our engagement with software and brands, while personal AI services could offer new levels of convenience and privacy protection.

These developments are not just possibilities but inevitabilities in the progression of AI. The challenge lies not in predicting if they will happen but in understanding how they will unfold and how best to leverage them in business and marketing.

Christian J. Ward
Since launching his first data company in 1999, Christian Ward has focused his career on data strategy. He co-founded Jaywalk Incorporated, later acquired by the Bank of New York, and two additional data startups in the past 25 years. Today, as Yext's Chief Data Officer, he helps customers and partners turn data into AI and search opportunities. Ward co-authored the #1 Amazon bestseller, "Data Leverage," and has held executive data roles at Arizent, Data Axle, and Thomson Reuters. Ward's insights appear in top publications and industry conferences on data strategy and AI.
Christian J Ward
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